FWP
Free Writing Prospectus
Filed pursuant to Rule 433
Registration Statement No. 333-157385
Cameco
NUCLEAR. The Clean Air Energy.
Please note that statements made in this handout, including statements regarding the companys
objectives, projections, estimates, expectations or predictions, contain forward-looking
information and statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and U.S. securities laws. The
company cautions that such information and statements involve risk and uncertainty, and that actual
results could differ materially from those contained in them. In addition, certain material factors
or assumptions were applied in drawing the conclusions or making the forecasts or projections
reflected in them. Additional information about the material factors that could cause actual
results to differ materially, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied, are
contained at the end of this handout.
Contacts:
Bob Lillie, Director
Investor Relations
Ph: 306.956.6639
bob_lillie@cameco.com
Rachelle Girard, Manager
Investor Relations
Ph: 306.956.6403
rachelle_girard@cameco.com
www. cameco. com
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Jerry Grandey
President and CEO
Cameco Corporation
February 2009 |
Note Regarding Share Offering
Cameco Corporation has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus) with the SEC (File No. 333-157385) for an offering of its common shares. Before you invest, you should read the prospectus in that registration statement and other documents that Cameco Corporation has filed with the SEC for more complete information about Cameco Corporation and this offering. You may get these documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC website at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, Cameco Corporation, or
any underwriter or any dealer participating in the offering, will arrange to send you the prospectus if you request it by calling toll free 1-800-414-3627. In addition, a copy of the prospectus will be available on the companys website at cameco.com under the investors page financial reporting section. |
Forward-Looking Statements
Please note that statements made in this presentation, including statements regarding the
companys objectives, projections, estimates, expectations or predictions, contain forward-looking
information and statements within the meaning of applicable Canadian and U.S. securities laws. The
company cautions that such information and statements involve risk and uncertainty, and that actual
results could differ materially from those contained in them. In addition, certain material factors
or assumptions were applied in drawing the conclusions or making the forecasts or projections
reflected in them. Additional information about the material factors that could cause actual
results to differ materially, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied, are
contained in the companys annual information form dated March 28, 2008 and the companys MD&A for
the year ended 2008, all of which are available on SEDAR and EDGAR, as well as through a link on
the page of the companys website which also contains the link to this presentation. |
Economic Turmoil
global recession uncertain times
* 2004
*
* * 2008
*TSX Composite Index Performance
*Dow Jones Industrial Average Performance |
Cameco Corporation
positioned to provide clean, reliable energy |
Cameco Advantage
stable customer base reliable revenue streams strong
cash flow solid balance sheet |
Cameco Strengths
world-class reserves low-cost operations |
Worldwide Nuclear Growth
long-term fundamentals remain strong
436 reactors operating in 34 countries
Photo source: NASA |
Nuclear Growth Potential
US, Europe and Asia
US utilities moving ahead
China, Russia and India
Photo Source: AREVA © Paiva Bourdon recommitted to long-
term plans
solid evidence nuclear renaissance is alive |
Camecos New Build Outlook
109 GWe Net Change* GWe Gross 2009-2018
110
21 100 90
80 Russia & Eastern Europe
34 70
China
60
Asia
50
Americas
40 35
30 Europe
20 9 |
* 10 10 0
* represents 97 net new reactors * represents 97 net new reactors |
Primary Supply vs Consumption
million lb U3 O8
200 150 100 50
0
2006 2007 2008E 2009E supply consumption |
Uranium Market
million lb U3 O8 2009-2018
2500
Required
2000 New
supply deficit
World Production of about 400
1500 Consumption million lbs
Secondary
Sources more new 1000 production |
* Existing needed Primary 500 Mine Production
0
* does not include projects under construction
Source: Camecos estimate |
Spot Price Volatility
Current $US / lb U3 O8 |
$150 $125 $100 $75 $50 $25 $0 |
7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 -
0 0 0 0 n t n t
n a pr ul c a ul c
a J A J O J Apr J
O J
Spot Price* Long-term price**
* average monthly spot price: Ux value at Feb. 9, 2009 $47.00 ** Ux long-term price at Feb. 9,
2009 $70.00 |
thinly traded volumes utility needs: zuncovered
requirements zinventory management producer needs: zcover
commitments zraise cash speculators |
Camecos Opportunities
strategically positioned for future grew asset base
core of production capability |
Camecos Strategic Position |
strategic alliances and acquisitions zNunavut, Niger, Kintyre
continue global exploration reinvest in existing infrastructure |
Canada reserves of 333 million lb (Cameco share 232 m lb)
21% U3O8 average ore
grade
transitioning to new mine
McArthur River/Key Lake areas
reserves of 17.5 million lb average ore grade of 1%
U3O8
added to reserve base in 2008
Rabbit Lake |
Cigar Lake Project
Canada
add 18 million lb U3O8 to uranium |
market annually (Cameco share 9 m lb) reserves of 226 million lb
U3O8 (Cameco share 113 m lb)
21% U3O8 average ore grade |
Cigar Lake Project
Plan Going Forward
identified source on 420 m level install bulkheads
inject grout and concrete into tunnel test integrity
process to take most of 2009 |
In-situ Recovery Operations
US and Kazakhstan
production to increase at all sites
Inkai expects commercial
Smith Ranch Highland, Wyoming production in 2009
Crow Butte, Nebraska Inkai |
More Than Mining
Nuclear Fuel Cycle |
Revenue Financial Highlights
3,000 2,859 CDN $ million
2,500 2,310 2,000 1,832
1,500 excellent results
1,000
500 record revenue
0
2006 2007 2008
Cash Flow Adjusted Net Earnings
1,000 800 801 |
800 708 572 589 600 600 418 400 400 274 200 200
0 0
2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 |
robust outlook for nuclear energy & uranium unparalleled uranium
asset base vertically integrated operations long-term contracting
strategy strong financial performance |
cameco.com
TSX CCO
TSX 60
NYSE CCJ |
Presentation Script
Jerry Grandey
BMO Florida Feb 24, 2009
Word Count: 2733 (~24 minutes)
Final Feb 17
Slide 1 Intro
Good morning.
Slide 2 Florida Nuclear Capacity
Its a great pleasure to be here in Florida with you to talk
about Cameco. Florida is one of the states leading the way in the drive for new nuclear
construction, and is taking a common sense approach to facilitate the financing of the, not
insignificant, capital costs. Four new units are on the drawing boards, deemed necessary by the
state regulator to meet the clean electricity needs of the region.
With this nearby evidence of the nuclear renaissance, I intend to provide you an overview of
Camecos operations and markets which are poised to reap the benefits, both near and long-term, of
that renaissance.
Slide 3 - FLI Disclaimer
Before I begin, I reiterate that our presentation includes
forward-looking information, which is based on a number of assumptions, and that actual results
could differ materially. Please refer to our annual information form and MD&A for more information.
2
Slide 4 Economic Turmoil
The world is a much different place than it was a year ago when we met in
this same venue. Turmoil in the worlds economy has reached unprecedented levels, the global
recession engulfs more and more sectors and previously rock-solid industries such as resources,
banking and autos have fallen precipitously. Governments are taking action, but it is not clear
they will succeed or be sufficient.
We are living in uncertain times, and it is easy to get
swallowed up in the gloom, pessimism and fear, and give up hope.
Slide 5 Cameco Corporation
But thats not how we, at Cameco, see things.
Although Cameco is not
immune to what is going on in the world, we are well positioned to fulfill our mission to provide
clean, reliable energy that can help meet the growing requirement for low-cost electricity in an
energy-hungry world.
Slide 6 Cameco Advantage
In many ways, we are in an enviable position.
We have a solid balance sheet and credit rating, as well as strong cash flow.
Unlike many companies, we have exceptionally reliable revenue streams. Our customers:
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operate their low-cost nuclear plants at maximum capacity to meet the baseload
requirements of their customers; |
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they have good credit ratings; |
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are in stable countries and are often government-owned or have a regulated rate
structure, and |
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they continue to consume the same amount of uranium whether the local economy is weak
or strong. |
The sales contracts we have were negotiated when uranium prices were on their way up the price
curve. About 65% reference market prices and many of these provide downside protection with
attractive floor prices. The remaining contracts have fixed prices with inflation protection.
So our revenue is reliable and relatively predictable with upside opportunity.
Slide 7 Cameco Strengths
Our revenue and earnings are also driven by our world-class reserves and low-cost operations in
Canada, the US and Kazakhstan. Our pipeline for future production is fed with highly prospective
global exploration properties.
And with the resurgence of the nuclear industry together with our talented and dedicated people, a
good foundation for Camecos future is in place. Nevertheless, in these uncertain times, our
outlook remains cautious. We are taking a measured approach to further secure our position until
the markets return to a more normal state.
Our financial partners have recognized our inherent strength and prudent approach as we reported
last week, we have recently negotiated an extension
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and increase to our $470 million short-term credit facility along with a new credit line of up to
$100-million.
Camecos strengths position it to benefit from the industrys long term fundamentals which remain
robust.
Slide 8 Worldwide Nuclear Growth
Today, the global nuclear industry operates a fleet of 436
reactors in 34 countries. In 2009, we estimate these reactors will require about 180 million pounds
of uranium.
Slide 9 -Nuclear Growth Potential (US, Europe and Asia)
In the US, a number of utilities continue to move ahead aggressively, evidenced by the 17
construction and operating licences that have been filed for 26 new reactors. Long lead time items
like reactor vessels are being ordered. At some sites, preliminary site work like land clearing and
construction of support roads should begin this year.
License reviews generally take 2 to 3 years before they are approved, so financial markets are
likely to improve in that time frame.
Given all of the circumstances, we expect there will be 4 to 8 new reactors constructed in the US
over the next decade.
In other regions, China, Russia and India have all recommitted to long-term plans for increasing
electricity supplies through aggressive nuclear plant construction programs.
5
Indeed, this past month has seen a number of remarkable developments providing solid evidence that
the nuclear renaissance is alive and well.
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Sweden abandoned its long-standing nuclear phase-out program concluding that
alternatives will be insufficient to provide the needed electricity, |
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China is debating increasing its nuclear construction program from 40 GWe to 60 or 70
GWe by 2020, |
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India is implementing plans with four separate nuclear plant vendors to build light
water reactors, |
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Georgia are likely to follow Florida in providing an encouraging nuclear plant
investment climate, |
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Finland, notwithstanding the first of a kind problems with the new EPR at Olkiluoto,
has an application for a sixth unit, and |
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South Koreas generation blueprint anticipates that by 2022 roughly half the countries
electricity will be nuclear generated. |
Slide 10 Camecos New Build Outlook
When we look at how the growing support for nuclear will affect uranium demand, we estimate a net
increase of 97 reactors by 2018. This translates into annual demand for uranium of about 226
million pounds. Thats an average annual growth rate of almost 3%.
Better reactor operations, reactor upratings, life extensions and the construction of new units
will help drive this demand growth. And new construction will likely produce additional
inventories. Indeed, both China and India are building inventory to support their nuclear energy
programs.
6
Slide 11 Primary Supply vs. Consumption
On the supply side, world uranium comes from primary mine production plus a number of secondary
sources.
In 2008, uranium mines collectively struggled to achieve production targets. Last year at this
time, we expected mine production of about 128 million pounds of uranium. Output was actually
about 115 million pounds. This supplied only two-thirds of reactor requirements with the balance
drawn from a variety of secondary sources including finite civilian and military inventories, and
some recycled products.
Slide 12 - Uranium Market (2009 2018)
The continuing drawdown of secondary sources is expected to make up only a portion of the
cumulative production deficit through the next decade. We estimate about 400 million pounds of
expansions and new mine production will be required; but this will not be easy. For two decades,
there was almost no investment in either exploration or new mine development because uranium prices
were below the production costs of most suppliers. Higher uranium prices of the recent past have
stimulated activity, but the time for discovery, licensing and construction in this industry is
lengthy.
So today, with existing operations at capacity and relatively few projects in the pipeline,
the production has been unable to rebound as quickly as uranium prices have.
Indeed, world
production of uranium has increased only 24% since uranium
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prices began to rise in 2003. Whereas, at todays spot price, the price of uranium has increased
three-fold over the 2003 average.
The current financial turmoil is likely to put additional pressure on the development of new
production capacity making it even more difficult to catch up with consumption and inventory
building. Evidence of this is already apparent in mine closures and delays.
Slide 13 Spot Price Volatility
With these overwhelmingly positive, long-term market fundamentals, volatility in the spot
price over the past year has raised concern over where the market is heading.
Today, the spot price
is $47 and the long-term price, which has been more stable, is at $70. (check prices prior to
delivery)
Slide 14 Spot Market Influences
For those who follow the market, this volatility is not
surprising. The spot market is thinly traded. Minor quantities can result in large price
movements.
The short-term requirements of most utilities are well covered, and therefore, they are
largely on the sidelines.
Utilities evaluate their positions as prices rise and fall. Over time,
they will step in and out of the spot market, depending on their need to contract for uncovered
requirements and/or their desire to build or sell inventories. Today, this leaves the fate of the
spot market in the hands of producers
8
needing to sell uncommitted material or cover shortages, and to speculators.
Given the financial
crisis and the pressure on cash, we expect that prices will remain volatile in 2009 as well as over
the next few years. When demand is weak, prices will moderate, while any significant hiccup in
planned production or inventory building could cause spot prices to spike upwards.
Of course, prices
will eventually stabilize within a range that supports exploration and the new mine development
necessary to meet future demand and ensure a viable production industry.
Slide 15 - Camecos Opportunities
In the past, despite record financial performance, Cameco has been
criticized for refusing to jump on the acquisition bandwagon while uranium spot prices soared.
The fact is, over the years, we have been very active: acquiring, evaluating and strategically
positioning for the future.
Much of Camecos past growth through acquisition occurred when uranium
prices were in the trough of the cycle. In the late 1990s and into this decade, we bet heavily on
price recovery and snapped up some of the best uranium properties in Canada, the United States and
Kazakhstan.
In 2008, these properties continue to be the core of our production capability.
Today,
uranium prices are experiencing volatility and capital markets have
9
become unfriendly. Until stability returns, smaller companies are turning to partnerships, joint
ventures and asset sales to raise the funds needed to survive and expand.
As in the past, this is an
opportunity for Cameco.
Slide 16 - Camecos Strategic Position
In addition to the global thrust of our exploration program, we have entered into several strategic
alliances. This complementary approach to exploration has created a portfolio of future options
for Cameco with footprints in promising regions like Nunavut and Niger. When a discovery is made,
we will have the right to increase our interest in these partnerships and gain a direct line of
sight to a potential production centre.
In August 2008, we announced the acquisition of a 70%
interest in Kintyre, an advanced uranium exploration project in Western Australia. This investment
expands our portfolio of quality uranium assets, adding potential for lower-cost production and
diversifying our deposit types.
As we look for further opportunities to grow, particularly in
uranium mining, we will also continue to protect and expand our market position by reinvesting in
existing infrastructure.
For Cameco, this includes expansion of our in situ recovery operations in
the US, and revitalization of the Key Lake and Rabbit Lake mills in Saskatchewan and the Port Hope
conversion facility in Ontario.
10
These revitalization projects will:
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Protect the environment; |
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Simplify and update existing technology; |
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Replace aging infrastructure, and |
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Improve the quality of life at our remote camps. |
Slide 17 Production Operations (Canada)
Our current operating assets and development projects include the high-grade, low-cost Canadian
operations in Saskatchewans Athabasca Basin.
That includes McArthur River, with an average ore grade of 21% more than 100 times the world
average where we are transitioning from the current mining area to a new area that promises to
sustain operations for many years.
Also in Saskatchewan, our Rabbit Lake mine has produced 175
million pounds of uranium in its three decades of operation. In 2008, we added to Rabbit Lakes
reserve base which will continue to support production of significant quantities of uranium for
several more years. We are optimistic that our ongoing exploration program will extend the
operating record even further.
Slide 18 Cigar Lake Project (Canada)
We expect Cigar Lake to generate 9 million pounds of uranium
production for Cameco, once our remediation and construction efforts are complete and we ramp up to
full production. Camecos share of reserves at Cigar Lake is
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113 million pounds of U3O8 at an average ore grade of 21%.
Slide 19 Cigar Lake Remediation
We reported last August that remediation work in Shaft 1 at Cigar
Lake was temporarily suspended after an increase in the rate of water inflow to the mine was
observed. This was particularly disappointing for us as excellent progress had been made.
Slide 20 Cigar Lake Project (Plan Going Forward)
Because we knew there was always a risk of
further water inflow, contingencies had been built into the Cigar Lake remediation plan. So when it
happened, we had both the systems and governance in place to handle the problem. As a result, the
plan was well executed with no safety or environmental issues. Since then, the team has made
significant progress on the path forward.
As we reported in our fourth quarter results, through the use of remotely operated vehicles, we
have identified the source of the August inflow. It is a fissure located in the top of the tunnel
on the 420 metre level a tunnel that was abandoned in the 1990s.
Drilling from surface, we intend to seal the tunnel with remotely installed bulkheads on either
side of the inflow location and then fill the tunnel with concrete and grout.
While we expect this process to take the better part of 2009, Cameco and our partners are committed
to bringing this valuable asset into production. We
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will continue to keep you updated on our findings and progress.
Slide 21 In-situ Recovery Operations (US & Kazakhstan)
Cameco has three operations outside of
Canada that use the in situ recovery mining process: in the US, Crow Butte in Nebraska and Smith
Ranch-Highland mine in Wyoming, and in Kazakhstan, Inkai, which is nearing commercial production.
All three are expected to increase their production in the coming years.
* * *
Slide 22 More Than Mining (Nuclear Fuel Cycle)
Cameco is more than just mining. Our uranium
production foundation is strengthened by vertically integrated operations that allow us to
capitalize fully on the nuclear renaissance.
We are one of only four uranium hexafluoride
(UF6) conversion suppliers in the western world, with about 35% of conversion capacity
through our operations in Port Hope, Ontario and long term capacity contract with Springfields
Fuels in the UK.
In addition to our conversion operations, we also have Candu fuel manufacturing
facilities in Port Hope.
And we have a 31.6% investment in nuclear electricity generation through
our Bruce Power partnership in Ontario.
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Our recent investment in Global Laser Enrichment expands and integrates Camecos interests in the
nuclear fuel cycle and, if successful, will support the development of a new generation of
laser-based enrichment technology.
* * *
Slide 23 Financial Highlights
As we reported last week, despite some operating challenges, 2008 was another year of excellent
results for Cameco with record revenues of $2.9 billion and robust cash flow from operations of
$700 million. Despite volatile markets, we expect another solid performance in 2009 driven by our
uranium business with the resilient pricing in our long term contracts and our diversified
production capability.
Slide 24 Rewarding Investment
These are exciting times for the uranium industry. And Cameco is
well positioned as an exceptional investment proposition. This is particularly so, when you take
into account:
1. The robust outlook for nuclear energy and uranium,
2. Our unparalleled uranium asset base,
3. Our vertically integrated operations,
4. Our long-term contracting strategy which positions us for increasing cash flow and
profitability, and
5. Our strong financial performance and conservative approach to financial management.
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We are confident that these strengths will enable us to realize the benefits of the discipline and
strategies executed over the past 20 years. And our financial flexibility should allow us to seize
value-adding opportunities as they arise.
Finally, our renewed focus on safety, operational
excellence and environmental leadership will permit us to leverage our assets to generate even
greater returns for our shareholders, in the future.
Thank you for your interest in Cameco and for
your attention today.
Slide 25 Trading Symbols
Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Information and Statements
Statements contained in this handout, and made orally during this presentation, which are not
current statements or historical facts are forward-looking information (as defined under Canadian
securities laws) and forward-looking statements (as defined in the U.S. Securities Exchange Act
of 1934, as amended) which may be material and that involve risks, uncertainties and other factors
that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by them.
Sentences containing words such as estimate, expect, likely, will, are confident, plan,
intend and outlook, and the negative of these words, or variations of them, are all indicative
of forward-looking information and statements.
The forward-looking information and statements included in this handout, and made orally during
this presentation, are subject to material risk factors that could cause actual results to differ
materially, and are based upon a number of material assumptions which may prove to be incorrect.
For example: our expectations regarding production from our uranium operations in 2009, and future
production levels, are subject to the risk that we will not be able to implement our plans for
commencing, sustaining or increasing production and capacity, including at Cigar Lake, our other
Canadian and U.S. operations and at Inkai, and the risk of delays, natural disasters or other
unforeseen occurrences, and assume that we will be successful in fully utilizing our existing
resource base, making new discoveries, completing our Cigar Lake project remediation plans,
commencing commercial production at Inkai in 2009 and completing desirable acquisitions; our
expectations regarding uranium prices, their degree of volatility and their impact on our returns
assume that our overall average realized price under existing and future sales contracts will
remain constant or continue to rise, and are subject to the risk that unforeseen changes in spot
prices or the composition of our sales contract portfolio will lead to unforeseen results; our
expectations regarding Camecos strategic position, performance in 2009, future prospects and
market position assume the success and competitive advantage of our business strategy, and are
subject to the risk that we, or the strategic alliances and joint ventures in which we participate,
will not be successful in exploiting the opportunities being pursued; we have made assumptions
regarding uranium spot prices and the US/Canadian dollar exchange rate, which are subject to the
risk of fluctuations that could be materially adverse to us; and our estimates and assumptions
regarding increasing demand for nuclear energy and uranium, the nuclear growth potential in Europe,
Asia and the United States, the number of new reactors expected to be built between 2009 and 2018
and a shortfall of supply relative to demand are subject to the risk that the number of reactors
will not increase to the same degree that we expect, and that the actual demand levels for nuclear
power will be significantly lower than we expect.
There may be other material risk factors and assumptions that cause actual results to vary
materially from the forward-looking information and statements included in this handout, and made
orally during this presentation. See our current Annual Information Form and our MD&A for the year
ended December 31, 2008, including the sections in them titled Caution Regarding Forward-Looking
Information and Statements.
The forward-looking information and statements contained in this handout, and made orally during
this presentation, represent managements views as of the date of this presentation in February
2009 and should not be considered current as of any subsequent date. While we anticipate that
subsequent developments may cause our views to change, we specifically disclaim any obligation to
update our views except to the extent required by applicable securities laws. This forward-looking
information is presented for the purpose of assisting you in understanding managements current
views regarding those future outcomes, and may not be appropriate for other purposes.
Cautionary Note to Shareholders in the United States
Information contained in this handout, and made orally during this presentation, regarding our
reserves has been prepared in accordance with the requirements of securities laws in effect in
Canada. National Instrument 43-101 -Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Project (NI 43-101) is a
rule developed by the Canadian Securities Administrators which establishes standards for all public
disclosure an issuer makes of scientific and technical information concerning mineral projects.
Unless otherwise indicated, all mineral reserve estimates contained in this presentation have been
prepared in accordance with NI 43-101 and the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and
Petroleum Classification System. These standards differ significantly from the requirements of the
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and mineral reserve information contained in this
handout and made orally during this presentation may not be comparable to similar information
disclosed by United States companies.