Spot crude oil prices in the US are on track as of Friday to finish the week up by more than 9% — the largest such gain since 2022 when markets reacted to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In contrast, the S&P Global Clean Energy stock index fell by 1% in early trading today, registering a decline of over 4% for the week.

The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has dominated global headlines in recent days. US President Joe Biden indicated to reporters on Thursday that he had not ruled out the possibility of an Israeli strike on Iran’s oil facilities. The comments sent shockwaves through energy markets, driving a 5% spike in crude oil prices intraday.

Meanwhile, green energy equities have largely remained moribund, with the notable exception of Constellation Energy CEG . The US-based energy company experienced a surge with news of a deal with Microsoft MSFT to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear plant to meet artificial intelligence-driven demand.

Strategas noted this morning to clients that: “Iranian production has been resilient throughout the Biden administration, increasing by +60%, and playing a key role in the supply/demand imbalance for global oil markets.”

According to analyst estimates, Iranian oil now accounts for ~12.5% of total OPEC production.

While the nature of Israel’s retaliation against Iran remains unknown, the possibility of such a large portion of global oil shipments going offline is unsettling. The market reaction in the sustainable energy sector signals limited concerns about long-term oil supply disruptions, for now.

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