One year ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his bloody invasion of Ukraine. While Putin clearly expected the war to be over in a matter of months, the bravery and fortitude of the Ukrainian people continue to frustrate and deny the Russian dictator even today. As we mark this auspicious anniversary and prepare for the second year of war, it is essential that we assess how this conflict began, its impact on the American people, and what it will take to end it.
Sadly, the Biden administration doesn’t seem serious about achieving a real victory and deterring America’s adversaries as it has been too slow in delivering the means necessary to deter or defeat them.
This war was far from inevitable. We cannot say for certain that it would not have happened had the Trump administration been in office, but I can say this: It didn’t happen on our watch.
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We knew it was Putin’s aim to establish Russian dominance over all the old Soviet bloc countries, including in Ukraine (as well as all of Eastern Europe). We prevented invasion by establishing deterrence: we kept the Nord Stream II pipeline from being completed, we withheld talks on a new START treaty, and we worked with our partners in NATO to increase defense spending and present a greater potential response to any act of Russian aggression.
We also supplied Ukraine with the tools it needed to deter an invasion and counter the Russian proxy forces in eastern Ukraine. We knew Putin’s objectives, and we took the steps necessary to deny him any room to achieve them.
We also were consistent – just as we deterred Putin, we imposed costs on anyone who threatened to harm or undermine our interests. Putin saw how we approached Iran, North Korea and China, and knew that threatening our interests was met with a real and costly response.
What changed? It certainly was not Putin. We should remember that the same man who ordered the invasion of Ukraine one year ago also ‘annexed’ Crimea during the Obama administration.
Then as now, Putin saw weakness in President Joe Biden’s leadership. He watched Biden’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan that cost 13 brave Americans their lives, with no reprisal or costs imposed on those responsible. He took note when Biden said that a "minor incursion" into Ukraine would be permissible even as Russian forces massed on Ukraine’s border, as well as Biden’s failure to impose costs on Russia following the hacking of American pipelines.
The deterrence we created during the Trump administration was lost due to Biden’s weakness. And Biden’s failure to protect American sovereignty at our southern border sent a signal that no border is to be respected. Putin didn’t change; American leadership changed, and that opened the door to the invasion of Ukraine.
Biden’s weakness and this war have had real consequences for the American people. Energy prices were pushed higher once the invasion began after Biden had already driven them up by killing America’s energy dominance, leading to the persistent inflation that continues to crush American families. Global supply chains and food markets have also been upset by the war, which has greatly affected American businesses and farmers.
Failing to defeat the Russians in Ukraine may only lead to a growing conflict in Europe and further harm our deterrence in Asia or the Middle East. The Ukrainians are fighting this war without U.S. troops, but that would not be the case should the Russians achieve victory in Ukraine and move on to a NATO country. Biden’s failure to put the American people first economically and in preserving our security has cost us here at home and around the globe.
Sadly, Biden continues to allow the war to proceed on Putin’s terms, choosing to "lead from behind" rather than leading a response that will bring the war to an end. Even having passed massive defense spending packages centered around military aid to Ukraine, this administration continues to send our aid piecemeal.
That is not to say that the rest of Europe shouldn’t do more – they should. And Ukraine hasn’t asked for our men and women in uniform to fight for them, nor should we provide such assistance. They are only asking for the equipment to fight their own battle, but Biden isn’t responding nearly fast enough to force Putin to reconsider his objectives.
His recent pledge to send American Abrams tanks is a clear example: Rather than be taken from the tanks already stationed in Europe, we are going to build 30 new tanks and ship them there. This process will take months, if not an entire year.
It will do nothing to actually deter Putin – it will only assure him that our aid will not be rapid or concentrated enough to give the Ukrainian military a decisive advantage. This timidity and weakness encourages Putin that America and its NATO allies are not serious about deterring him.
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It is essential that the Biden administration change its approach, not just to achieve a favorable outcome in Ukraine, but to establish our deterrence with adversaries beyond Russia. This weakness will only embolden the bad guys.
Vladimir Putin was watching Biden’s botched withdrawal in Afghanistan, but so was Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping. Xi is now contemplating assisting the Russians with lethal aid, a move that will only intensify the conflict and inflict further death and destruction on the Ukrainian people.
The CCP spy balloon that was allowed to traverse the entire United States for a week is evidence enough that Xi feels more emboldened than ever, and respects U.S. leadership as little as ever. Xi is now watching how we approach Ukraine with an eye towards Taiwan, and a slow, weak, and feckless response in Ukraine greatly increases the risk that Xi will feel emboldened to move against the island nation. The consequences of such a move for the American people would dwarf those of the war in Ukraine.
Biden visited Kyiv this week and proclaimed that "Ukraine stands. Democracy stands. The Americans stand with you, and the world stands with you." This is all well and good, but we should never forget that warm words and triumphant photo-ops are not a replacement for real deterrence and assistance.
If we do not back up our words with action, we will do little to convince our adversaries that there are costs for attacking U.S. interests. Indeed, we will only reinforce the impression of American weakness held by the likes of Putin, Xi, Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong Un.
If Biden does not correct this in the second year of the war in Ukraine, he will greatly increase the risk these individuals pose to the American people.
