If you missed out on the 244% gain in Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) in the past 12 months, you have impressive company. Cathie Wood, head of Ark Investment Management, sold NVDA stock in 2023 and never looked back.
Critics of Wood, of which there are many, will see this as more ammunition for their critiques of her investment style. Detractors point most commonly to her Ark funds' heavy concentration in highly volatile disruptive technology stocks, the lofty valuations of many top picks, and – in some cases – underwhelming short-term performance.
But could this be a tortoise and hare situation where Wood will, over time, enjoy the last laugh? Wood hasn't abandoned artificial intelligence stocks. She's just taking a different path. Whether or not she succeeds will depend on one stock that her funds have been buying hand over fist, that of UiPath Inc. (NYSE: PATH).
A Path to Future Riches?
Wood started buying PATH stock in April 2022, which coincided with the company going public. She has continued to hold or add to her position to this day. Today, UiPath is the second largest holding by share count in her signature Ark Innovation ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKK).
At the time of her first purchase, Wood expressed "high conviction in UiPath's ability to integrate Robotic Process Automation (RPA) into many business processes across large enterprises around the world." To that end, UiPath has customers in several sectors, including healthcare, banking and financial services, insurance, government, telecom, and manufacturing.
The company's mantra is "UiPath is AI at work." Its AI software bots can help enterprise customers move from discovery to fully automated operations. Since the first quarter of its 2022 fiscal year, UiPath has grown its annualized renewal run rate (ARR) at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% through its most recent quarter ending in September 2023.
It's the Egg to the Chicken
The growth of Nvidia reminds investors that the AI story is still in its early stages. That's why investors continue to rush into Nvidia. AI chips will be essential to enabling AI applications. But no chip can make an application happen with software. Perhaps that's the bet that Wood is taking on UiPath.
The question is, should you?
PATH stock is down more than 66% since its initial public offering (IPO). However, the stock is up 52% in the last 12 months, but the UiPath analyst ratings on MarketBeat have a Hold rating on the stock with a $22.32 consensus price target that is 6% below the price on March 4, 2024.
Looking at the option chain for PATH stock, $23.50 seems to be a sweet spot for short-term call and put options. Going out until mid-April, traders anticipate that the stock will be range-bound around its current level.
One catalyst could be the company's next earnings report on March 13, 2024. The company is forecasting revenue of $381 million. That's slightly below the consensus estimate of $382.84 million. Additionally, the company expects annual recurring revenue (ARR) to be between $1.45 billion and $1.455 billion.
