Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin may run for president, but first, he’s focused on winning the commonwealth’s midterm elections this November. He’s not on the ballot, but all 140 seats in the Virginia General Assembly are. If Republicans expand their narrow majority in the House of Delegates and take back the Senate, Gov. Youngkin will be free to pass a sweeping agenda, with a particular focus on education reform and parental rights. It could make him a conservative hero just weeks before the presidential primary season begins.
But teachers’ unions, who tried hard to defeat Youngkin in 2021, have other plans. Three years ago, then-Gov. Ralph Northam signed a law enabling local government employees, most notably teachers, to collectively bargain for the first time in state history. Teachers’ unions hadn’t made any headway before Gov. Youngkin was elected in 2021, but they’ve spent the past two years furiously organizing. They secured their first collective bargaining agreement in Richmond late last year, with essentially all of Northern Virginia not far behind.
The 2023 elections are the unions’ first real chance to flex their muscle. It’s an understatement to say they intend a show of strength. With an influx of union dues, unions have opened the floodgates on election spending. The Virginia Education Association, the state’s largest teachers’ union, increased its political contributions 11-fold between 2020 and 2022, and it’s on track to break that record this year.
The unions are highly motivated. One of Gov. Youngkin’s top priorities is Education Savings Accounts, which will provide every family with thousands of dollars a year to spend on schools of their choosing. Virginia families got a taste in spring of 2023 when the governor approved a $30 million grant fund for families to hire tutors and get other educational services. The fund was oversubscribed, showing incredible demand from families for education freedom. Yet more such policies, especially ESAs, are the greatest threat to teachers’ unions, since they break the de facto monopoly of public K-12 education.
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That monopoly contributes to student failure. According to the National Assessment of Educational Priorities, which is typically called "the nation’s report card," Virginia’s students are massively falling behind. Barely 37 percent of 4th graders are proficient in Math, while only 31 percent are proficient in English – down 10 and 6 points in three years, respectively. By 8th grade, average scores are even lower, with less than a third of students achieving proficiency in math, reading, and writing.
Education Savings Accounts are the ticket to excellence Virginia students need. They’ll give families access to a marketplace of options, spurring the competition and innovation that could transform student performance for decades to come. Sadly, teachers’ unions would rather keep as many students in public schools as possible, even if it means stunting student success.
The unions know they can’t defeat Republicans’ arguments about the superiority of school-choice policies. Instead, they want to beat the GOP with a superior political strategy. Unions are pouring resources into a get-out-the-vote effort, with a particular focus on absentee and early voting. The transparent hope is to build an insurmountable lead for Democrats in early voting. The national 2022 midterm elections are the model: 42.5 percent of early voters were registered Democrats, compared to barely a third who were Republicans. Virginia Democrats, with teachers’ union support, say their 2023 effort will be the "biggest, earliest voter turnout project" ever.
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There’s no guarantee the left’s early voting strategy will work, but Gov. Youngkin and Republicans aren’t taking any chances. In July, they launched their own early-voting campaign, with the governor declaring: "I’m tired of us going into elections down thousands of votes." He’s right, but the Republican Party doesn’t yet have an ally comparable to teachers’ unions in terms of reach and money. Unions already have the infrastructure to turn out early and absentee voters statewide. Conservative groups are playing catch-up, and they need all the help they can get.
Say this about the teachers’ unions: They play to win. If they succeed in preserving or expanding Democrat majorities in the General Assembly, they’ll stifle school choice and countless other conservative priorities. Gov. Youngkin knows it, which is why he’s doubling down on education, a winning issue, while breaking the Republican mold with a focus on early and absentee voting. He needs to win in 2023 to improve his chances in 2024.
